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1
We investigate whether and to what extent Chinese development finance affects infant mortality, combining 92 demographic and health surveys (DHS) for a maximum of 53 countries and almost 55,000 sub-national locations over the 2002-2014 period. We address causality by instrumenting aid with a set of
...
interacted variables. Variation over
time results from indicators that measure the availability of funding in a given year. Cross-sectional variation results from a sub-national region’s “probability to receive aid.” Controlled for this probability in tandem with fixed effects for country-years and provinces, the interactions of these variables form powerful and excludable instruments. Our results show that Chinese aid increases infant mortality at sub-national scales, but decreases mortality at the countrylevel. In several tests, we show that this stark contrast likely results from aid being fungible within recipient countries.
more
To realize Agenda 2030, aid agencies, private philanthropies, and their partners in the Global South need better data to monitor how official development finance (ODF) dollars advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and avoid missing the mark. In this report, we summarize the results of a n
...
ovel effort to tag and analyze 2.7 million ODF projects between 2010-2021 using machine learning to understand their contributions to the SDG thematic areas at a goal
and target level. This time frame is instructive: it compares the last six years of the Millennium Development Goals era and the first six years of the new SDG age, from early optimism to later uncertainty about the resilience of the agenda to drive collective commitments amid unanticipated global shocks.
more
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that
the world was not well prepared to respond
to an infectious disease threat of this magnitude. Countries across all socioeconomic and development categories have struggled
to implement effective national responses. Substantial amounts of additional investmen
...
t are required to support the development of country capacities to prevent, detect and respond to both existing and emerging
infectious disease threats. Prior research efforts have estimated that between US$96 and $204billion is required, globally, to
advance country-level health security capacities, with US$63–131billion needed over a 3-year period. Given the substantial costs
of ongoing COVID-19 response, estimated to
be over US$12.5trillion through 2024, and an estimated 12.1–22.7million excess deaths, globally, due to COVID-19 as of January 2022,
the importance and potential return on investment of such upfront investments in capacity building are more evident than ever before.
more
This paper presents a bibliometric analysis of the literature on private health aid and official health assistance between 2000 and 2022. It provides an overview of the sites and themes in the literature pertaining to development assistance in health, and collates the significant policy recommendati
...
ons presented therein. Several crucial findings emerge from the bibliometric analysis: 44.2 percent of the 489 papers/articles assessed focused on lower-middle-income countries, while 37.7 percent focused on low-income countries. However, authors affiliated with institutes and organisations from lower-middle- and low-income countries contributed merely 15.5 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively, of the papers assessed. Most (72.7 percent) were written by authors from highmiddle-
and high-income countries. Additionally, despite non-governmental
organisations, philanthropies, and private businesses constituting about 20 percent of development assistance donors, a mere 4 percent of all papers focused on these entities.
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Rising levels of inflation, debt and macrofiscal tightening are putting expenditures on the social sectors including health under immense scrutiny. Already, there are worrying signs of reductions in social sector investments. However, even before the pandemic, evidence showed the significant returns
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on investments in health equity and its social determinants. Emerging data and trends show that these potential returns have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic - investments in social determinants can mitigate widespread reductions in human capital and the increasing likelihood of costly syndemics, while promoting access to healthcare innovations that have thus far been inequitably distributed. Therefore, we argue that, despite immediate fiscal pressures, this is exactly the time to invest in health equity and its broader social determinants, as the returns on such investments have never been greater.
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Each year since 2007, G-FINDER has provided policy-makers, donors, researchers and industry with a comprehensive analysis of global investment into research and development of new products to
prevent, diagnose, control or cure neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, making it the go
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ld standard in tracking and reporting global funding for neglected disease R&D. This year’s report, the sixteenth overall, focuses on investments made in participants’ 2022 financial year (‘FY2022’) and, for the first time, adds comprehensive coverage of the product pipeline in each disease area.
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Development Finance at a Turning Point: Effects and Policy Recommendations
Berensmann K., Laudage Teles S., Sommer C., et al.
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
(2023)
CC
Development finance is at a turning point, as the macroeconomic environment has changed profoundly and the financing gap for low- and middle-income countries has widened. The events that led to this new situation are the multiple crises that the global economy is facing, such as the climate crisis,
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the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. As a
result, interest rates have risen sharply over the past year and are not expected to decline anytime soon. High interest rates further restrict low- and middle-income countries’ access to international financial markets by making borrowing more expensive. At the same time, debt
levels in several countries are rising to levels that are almost impossible to repay. Poorer countries find themselves in a trap where financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) becomes a distant goal for them.
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Africa’s health sector is facing an unprecedented financing crisis, driven by a sharp decline of 70% in Official Development Assistance (ODA) from 2021 to 2025 and deep-rooted structural vulnerabilities. This collapse is placing immense pressure on Africa’s already fragile health systems as ODA
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is seen as the backbone of critical health programs: pandemic preparedness, maternal and child health services, disease control programs are all at
risk, threatening Sustainable Development Goal 3 and Universal Health Coverage. Compounding this is Africa’s spiraling debt, with countries expected to service USD 81 billion by 2025—surpassing anticipated external financing inflows—further eroding fiscal space for health investments. Level of domestic resources is low. TThe Abuja Declaration of 2001, a pivotal commitment made by African Union (AU) member states, aimed to reverse this trend by pledging to allocate at least 15% of national budgets to the health sector. However, more than two decades later, only three countries—Rwanda, Botswana, and Cabo Verde—have
consistently met or exceeded this target (WHO, 2023). In contrast, over 30 AU member states remain well below the 10% benchmark, with some allocating as little as 5–7% of their national budgets to health.
In addition, only 16 (29%) of African countries currently have updated versions of National Health Development Plan (NHDP) supported by a National Health Financing Plan (NHFP). These two documents play a critical role in driving internal resource mobilisation. At the same time, public health emergencies are surging, rising 41%—from 152 in 2022 to
213 in 2024—exposing severe under-resourcing of health infrastructure and workforce. Recurring outbreaks (Mpox, Ebola, cholera, measles, Marburg…) alongside effects of climate change and humanitarian crises in Eastern DRC, the Sahel, and Sudan, are overwhelming systems stretched by chronic underfunding. The situation is worsened by Africa’s heavy dependency with over 90% of vaccines, medicines, and diagnostics being externally sourced—leaving countries vulnerable to global supply chain shocks. Health worker shortages persist, with only 2.3 professionals
per 1,000 people (below the WHO’s recommended 4.45), and fewer than 30% of systems are digitized, undermining disease surveillance and early warning. Without decisive action, Africa CDC projects the continent could reverse two decades of health progress, face 2 to 4 million additional preventable deaths annually, and a heightened risk of a pandemic emerging from within. Furthermore, 39 million more
Africans could be pushed into poverty by 2030 due to intertwined health and economic shocks. This is not just a sectoral crisis—it is an existential threat to Africa’s political, social, and economic resilience, and global stability. In response, African leaders, under Africa CDC’s stewardship, are advancing a comprehensive three-pillar strategy centered on domestic resource mobilization, innovative financing, and blended finance.
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Achieving financial risk protection for the whole population requires significant financing for health. Health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are plagued with persistent underfunding, and recent reductions in official development assistance have been registered. To create fiscal
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space for health, the pursuit of efficiency gains and exploring innovative health financing for health seem attractive. This paper sought to synthesize available evidence on the nature of innovative health financing instruments, mechanisms and policies implemented in Africa. We further reviewed the factors that hinder or facilitate implementation, the lessons learnt on the structure, the development process and the implementation.
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The Council was established in late 2020 by Dr Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus (Director-General, WHO) to provide new economic thinking – reassessing how health and wellbeing are valued, produced and distributed across the economy. An all-female group of 10 distinguished economists and area experts, t
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he Council has focused on reimagining how to put Health for All at the heart of government decision-making and private sector collaboration at regional, national and international levels.
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This article provides an in-depth analysis of the Global Fund's strategic initiatives in resource mobilization and recovery amid global economic fluctuations and geopolitical challenges. It highlights the Fund's successful conversion of pledges and innovative financing models that ensure sustainable
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funding for combating HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria. The discussion extends to the Fund's rigorous recovery processes and advocacy efforts to bolster its visibility on international platforms. Additionally, it explores the impact of economic constraints on health funding and the potential of emerging markets and technologies. Performance metrics and health impact assessments underscore the Global Fund's critical role in advancing global health objectives. This analysis offers stakeholders valuable insights into the complexities of global health financing and the Global Fund's adaptive strategies in response.
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This comprehensive HPFM report thoroughly explores Kenya’s health financing landscape. It provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of affairs and sheds light on required strategic changes in health financing. The report points out the need to improve public financial management within th
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e health sector, for more efficient financial systems. It focuses on better resourceraising and utilization mechanisms. The matrix highlights the need for consolidation of fragmented health financing arrangements, for a more efficient health system. It also emphasizes the need for enhancing strategic purchasing of health services, to improve the overall efficiency and quality of care. Additionally, the report stresses the critical
role of leveraging data and information systems for more evidence-based informed decision-making. These recommendations are crucial for advancing Kenya’s health financing system and moving closer to the UHC goal.
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There is growing pressure on PEPFAR, the U.S. global HIV program, to increase its planning for sustainability, including through domestic resource mobilization and, ultimately, transitioning financing at
least in part to recipient countries. While this is connected to a broader push in global healt
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h and development, driven by a constrained financing environment and desire to promote more countryownership of programs and services, there are specific questions facing PEPFAR’s future. A National Academy report from 2017, for example, recommended that PEPFAR look toward phasing down its spending and supporting countries in their transition from bilateral aid to domestic financing for HIV. At a
Senate hearing last year, PEPFAR was asked how it was working to increase domestic resources and under what conditions would it need less resources to accomplish its goals. Recent challenges in securing a five-year reauthorization of the program have only served to heighten the focus on
sustainability and domestic resource mobilization. How PEPFAR does this, however, remains an ongoing question.
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This paper examines the implications of the IMF’s April 2024 macro-fiscal forecast updates on government health expenditure (GHE) across 170 economies through 2029, covering nearly all years remaining to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings reveal wide disparities in gove
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rnments' capacities to increase health spending, with differences not only observed across income groups but also within them. Primary concerns focus to two groups of low- and lower middleincome
countries: the first group is projected to experience a contraction in real per capita GHE from 2019 and 2029, threatening to reverse progress toward the health SDG targets, while the other group faces stagnation in real per capita GHE, greatly limiting advancement. The insights presented are crucial for health policymakers and their external partners to respond to evolving macro-fiscal circumstances and stabilize investment growth in health. While increasing the priority of health in spending is a key policy option, it will not be sufficient on its own. Effective responses also
require improving spending efficiency and addressing broader fiscal challenges. Without decisive action, many countries have little chance of achieving the health SDGs.
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Conditioned domestic financing policy, referring to the domestic financing of health projects, programs, and national responses conditioned by global health funding agencies and recipient country governments, is one mechanism to promote sustainability and country ownership. We aim to understand how
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the concept is defined and operationalized by agencies and how such policies relate to overall health spending patterns.
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The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical gaps in the global response to health crises, particularly in the financing of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, recovery, and reconstruction. This chapter presents a comprehensive framework for pandemic financing that spans the entire pandemic cycle
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, emphasizing the need for timely, adequate, and effective financial resources. The framework is designed to support
policymakers in both low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income nations, providing a guide to appropriate financing tools for each stage of a pandemic, from prevention and preparedness to response and recovery. Key economic concepts such as global public goods, time preference, and incentives are explored to underscore the complexities of pandemic financing.
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In 2019, the Task Force on Fiscal Policy for Health concluded that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages were a highly effective but greatly underused policy tool to reduce consumption, save lives, and raise domestic resources. The Task Force estimated that if all countries increa
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sed their excise taxes to raise prices by 50 percent, over 50 million premature deaths could be averted worldwide over the next 50 years while
raising over USD 20 trillion of additional revenue. Since the Task Force first convened, the world has faced a “polycrisis,” including a global pandemic, an economic recession, and the outbreak of wars in Europe and the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the world has also experienced prolonged health and fiscal crises. Health systems, weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic, lack sufficient financing to rebuild and respond to the surging noncommunicable diseases epidemic caused by uncontrolled risk factors such as tobacco, alcohol, and sugar consumption. Opportunities to raise domestic resources are limited and debt burdens have squeezed budgets. The period from 2019 to 2027 risks becoming a “lost decade” for health and social policies, with 110 countries facing little prospect of any
ability to raise government revenues beyond current levels. In this paper, we describe the current health and fiscal crises and review the contribution that health taxes could make in turning around this dire situation. We conclude that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and
sugar-sweetened beverages are an ideal policy solution—good for the budget and good for health. These taxes are relatively quick to implement, and, unlike other taxes, do not put economic growth at risk—a vital benefit in the current era.
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Frequent efforts to revise the official development assistance (ODA) accounting rules have raised important questions about the integrity and relevance of what currently “counts” as ODA spending. In this note, we outline a brief history of the evolution of the ODA accounting rules to date, highl
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ighting how—and why—the ODA concept has changed since it emerged in 1969. Doing so provides a starting point for considering whether the current concept of ODA remains “fit for purpose” and whether, or how, the concept could reform to better meet current needs.
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National Strategic Plan: Malaria Elimination 2023-27
National Centre for Vector Borne Disease Control (NCVBDC)
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) - India
(2023)
C2
The National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination in India (2023-2027) focuses on achieving malaria elimination by 2030, in alignment with the Global Technical Strategy. The document outlines the strategies, targets, and goals for malaria elimination, aiming for zero indigenous malaria cases by 20
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27. It emphasizes district-based planning, robust surveillance systems, and enhancing case management and vector control. The plan stresses the importance of universal access to treatment, prevention, and data-driven decision-making. Furthermore, it encourages innovation and research in malaria elimination efforts, fostering multisectoral coordination and community engagement.
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This technical note provides guidance on actions to accelerate P. falciparum elimination in areas close to achieving this goal without compromising unified malaria elimination efforts (P. vivax - P. falciparum), while contributing to the country's ultimate goal of eliminating malaria overall.
