This paper was commissioned by N´weti and Wemos as part
of the project “Equitable health financing for a strong health
system in Mozambique”. Its purpose is to contribute to the
debate of the Mozambican Ministry of Health’s draft Health
Sector Financing Strategy (HSFS) 2025 – 2034
Africa’s health sector is facing an unprecedented financing crisis, driven by a sharp decline of 70% in Official Development Assistance (ODA) from 2021 to 2025 and deep-rooted structural vulnerabilities. This collapse is placing immense pressure on Africa’s already fragile health systems as ODA ...is seen as the backbone of critical health programs: pandemic preparedness, maternal and child health services, disease control programs are all at
risk, threatening Sustainable Development Goal 3 and Universal Health Coverage. Compounding this is Africa’s spiraling debt, with countries expected to service USD 81 billion by 2025—surpassing anticipated external financing inflows—further eroding fiscal space for health investments. Level of domestic resources is low. TThe Abuja Declaration of 2001, a pivotal commitment made by African Union (AU) member states, aimed to reverse this trend by pledging to allocate at least 15% of national budgets to the health sector. However, more than two decades later, only three countries—Rwanda, Botswana, and Cabo Verde—have
consistently met or exceeded this target (WHO, 2023). In contrast, over 30 AU member states remain well below the 10% benchmark, with some allocating as little as 5–7% of their national budgets to health.
In addition, only 16 (29%) of African countries currently have updated versions of National Health Development Plan (NHDP) supported by a National Health Financing Plan (NHFP). These two documents play a critical role in driving internal resource mobilisation. At the same time, public health emergencies are surging, rising 41%—from 152 in 2022 to
213 in 2024—exposing severe under-resourcing of health infrastructure and workforce. Recurring outbreaks (Mpox, Ebola, cholera, measles, Marburg…) alongside effects of climate change and humanitarian crises in Eastern DRC, the Sahel, and Sudan, are overwhelming systems stretched by chronic underfunding. The situation is worsened by Africa’s heavy dependency with over 90% of vaccines, medicines, and diagnostics being externally sourced—leaving countries vulnerable to global supply chain shocks. Health worker shortages persist, with only 2.3 professionals
per 1,000 people (below the WHO’s recommended 4.45), and fewer than 30% of systems are digitized, undermining disease surveillance and early warning. Without decisive action, Africa CDC projects the continent could reverse two decades of health progress, face 2 to 4 million additional preventable deaths annually, and a heightened risk of a pandemic emerging from within. Furthermore, 39 million more
Africans could be pushed into poverty by 2030 due to intertwined health and economic shocks. This is not just a sectoral crisis—it is an existential threat to Africa’s political, social, and economic resilience, and global stability. In response, African leaders, under Africa CDC’s stewardship, are advancing a comprehensive three-pillar strategy centered on domestic resource mobilization, innovative financing, and blended finance.
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Following the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution, Ukraine embarked on a national reform program to reduce widespread corruption within government. In the health sector, the government introduced several complementary reforms that aimed to improve the health outcomes of Ukrainian citizens, but designed in su...ch a way that they would also reduce corruption. The reforms included reconfiguring primary care financing and essential medicines reimbursement under the newly formed National Health Service of Ukraine; raising the remuneration of health professionals; introducing a transparent, merit-based, process for medical university admissions; and initiating development of an eHealth digital records system.
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Background
The ambitious development agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires substantial investments across several sectors, including for SDG 3 (healthy lives and wellbeing). No estimates of the additional resources needed to strengthen comprehensive health service delivery to...wards the attainment of SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries have been published.
Methods
We developed a framework for health systems strengthening, within which population-level and individual-level health service coverage is gradually scaled up over time. We developed projections for 67 low-income and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030, representing 95% of the total population in low-income and middle-income countries. We considered four service delivery platforms, and modelled two scenarios with differing levels of ambition: a progress scenario, in which countries’ advancement towards global targets is constrained by their health system’s assumed absorptive capacity, and an ambitious scenario, in which most countries attain the global targets. We estimated the associated costs and health effects, including reduced prevalence of illness, lives saved, and increases in life expectancy. We projected available funding by country and year, taking into account economic growth and anticipated allocation towards the health sector, to allow for an analysis of affordability and financial sustainability.
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Policy note: Cambodia Health Systems in Transition.
The health system includes a mix of public and private providers. The use of private providers is much greater among the wealthy, while the use of informal-sector health providers is greater among the poor. Due to these circumstances there is ...considerable scope to establish appropriate public-private cooperation and to reinforce the regulatory mandate of the Ministry of Health (MOH).
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Health sector reforms not only require attention to specific components but also a supportive environment. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is still much to be done on ensuring that people receive prioritized healthcare services. Despite LIMCs spending an average of 6% of their GDP... on health, there have been minimal impacts compared to high-income countries. Health sector reform is a gradual process with complex systems; hence, the need for a vision and long-term strategies to realize the desired goals. In this chapter, we present our proposal to advance universal health coverage (UHC) in LMICs. Overall, our main aim is to provide strategies for achieving actual UHC and not aspirational UHC in LMICs by strengthening health systems, improving health insurance coverage and financial protection, and reducing disparities in healthcare coverage especially on prioritized health problems, and enhancing a primary care-oriented healthcare system.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a double shock - health and economic. As of March 1, 2021, COVID-19 has cost more than 2.5 million lives and triggered an economic recession surpassing any economic downturn since World War II.
Part I of this paper explores the impact of this current macro-fisc...al outlook on the three primary sources of health spending. Drawing on experiences from previous economic crises, scenario analyses suggest a fall in government per capita spending on health in 2021 and 2022 unless governments make bold choices to increase the share of health in general government spending.
Part II of the paper discusses policy options to meet the spending needs in health. These options encompass strategies to make fiscal adjustments work and channel funds where they are most needed, as well as policies to stabilize the balance sheets of social health insurance (SHI) schemes. The paper explains how the health sector can play an active role in expanding fiscal space, contributing to tax reforms, most importantly pro-health taxes, and mobilizing and absorbing external financing, including debt relief.
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In 2015 around 15 million people living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub–Saharan Africa. Sustained provision of ART, though both prudent and necessary, creates substantial long–term fiscal obligations for countries affected by HIV/ AIDS. As donor assistance for healt...h remains constrained, novel financing mechanisms are needed to augment funding domestic sources. We explore how Innovative Financing has been used to co–finance domestic HIV/AIDS responses. Based on analysis of non–health sectors, we identify innovative financing instruments that could be used in the HIV response.
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Background: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to ...measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated.
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Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spendi...ng can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980–2015, and health spend data from 1995–2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted.
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From 2000 to 2010, Rwanda implemented comprehensive health sector reforms to strengthen the public health system, with the aim of reducing maternal and newborn deaths in line with Millennium Development Goal 5, among many other improvements in national health. Based on a systematic review of the lit...erature, national policy documents and three Demographic & Health Surveys (2000, 2005 and 2010), this paper describes the reforms and the policies they were based on, and provides data on the extent of Rwanda’s progress in expanding the coverage of four key women’s health services. Progress took place in 2000–2005 and became more rapid after 2006, mostly in rural areas, when the national facility-based childbirth policy, performance-based financing, and community-based health insurance were scaled up. Between 2006 and 2010, the following increases in coverage took place as compared to 2000–2005, particularly in rural areas, where most poor women live: births with skilled attendance (77% increase vs. 26%), institutional delivery (146% increase vs. 8%), and contraceptive prevalence (351% increase vs. 150%). The primary factors in these improvements were increases in the health workforce and their skills, performance-based financing, community-based health insurance, and better leadership and governance. Further research is needed to determine the impact of these changes on health outcomes in women and children.
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Timely, reliable and complete information on financial resources in the health sector is critical for sound policy making and planning, particularly in developing countries where resources are both scarce and unpredictable. Health resource tracking has a long history and has seen renewed interest mo...re recently as pressure has mounted to improve accountability for the attainment of the health Millennium Development Goals. We review the methods used to track health resources and recent experiences of their application, with a view to identifying the major challenges that must be overcome if data availability and reliability are to improve.
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The Health Sector Policy gives general orientations for the sector which are further developed in the various sub-sector policies guiding key health programs and departments. All health sub-sector policies will be updated in line with this new policy. The Health Sector Policy is the basis of nationa...l health planning and the first point of reference for all actors working in the health sector. The overall aim of this policy is to ensure universal accessibility (in geographical and financial terms) of equitable and affordable quality health services (preventative, curative, rehabilitative and promotional services) for all Rwandans. It sets the health sector’s objectives, identifies the priority health interventions for meeting these objectives, outlines the role of each level in the health system, and provides guidelines for improved planning and evaluation of activities in the health sector. A companion Health Sector Strategic Plan (HSSP) elaborates the strategic directions defined in the Health Sector Policy in order to support and achieve the implementation of the policy, and more detailed annual operational plans describe the activities under each strategy.
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Rwanda’s fourth health sector strategic plan (HSSP4) is meant to provide the health sector with a Strategic Plan that will highlight its commitments and priorities for the coming 6 years. It will be fully integrated in the overall economic development plan of the Government. HSSP4 will fulfill the... country’s commitment expressed in the national constitution, National Strategy for Transformation (NST) and the aspirations of the Health Sector Policy 2015. The strategies herein adhere to the Universal Health Coverage (UHC) principles towards realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). HSSP4 therefore lays a foundation for Vision 2050 (“The Rwanda We Want”), which will transform Rwanda into a high-income country by 2050. HSSP4 anticipates the epidemiological transition of the country, the increase in population and life expectancy and the expected increase of the health needs of the elderly, notably in Non Communicable Diseases (NCDs). HSSP4 also anticipates a decrease in external financial inflows, hence it is imperative to build secure / resilient health systems.
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This comprehensive HPFM report thoroughly explores Kenya’s health financing landscape. It provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of affairs and sheds light on required strategic changes in health financing. The report points out the need to improve public financial management within th...e health sector, for more efficient financial systems. It focuses on better resourceraising and utilization mechanisms. The matrix highlights the need for consolidation of fragmented health financing arrangements, for a more efficient health system. It also emphasizes the need for enhancing strategic purchasing of health services, to improve the overall efficiency and quality of care. Additionally, the report stresses the critical
role of leveraging data and information systems for more evidence-based informed decision-making. These recommendations are crucial for advancing Kenya’s health financing system and moving closer to the UHC goal.
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Uzbekistan has started a process of health system reform that includes fundamental changes in service delivery and health financing arrangements, as well as digitalization of the health care sector. The reform was initiated in 2018 by the adoption of high-level legislation, which was put into practi...ce in 2021 by initiation of a pilot project in the Syrdarya Oblast. The Government intention is to expand the new system to other regions and eventually implement planned reforms throughout the country. This review assesses the implementation of system changes and provides recommendations for future reform development. The report is organized around three key topics: transformation of primary health care provision, implementation of health financing reforms and development of the e-health system.
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Data on the essential building blocks of mental health systems, including mental health
governance, financing, service delivery, human resources and information, are reported. For
mental health planning, it is important to know not only the level of resources in these six areas,
but also how thos...e resources are being organized and utilized. Thus, data on efficiency, access,
equity, linkages with other sectors and respect for human rights are reported as well.
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ndependent of the current conflict, the health sector in Ukraine faces several critical shortcomings. In particular, the country has an oversupply of hospitals and an undersupply of primary care and diagnostic facilities. Addressing these limitations will require substantial amounts of capital inves...tment, but constraints on public finances in the post-war context will reduce the Government’s ability to fund the needed reconfiguration. Multiple international financial institutions have stated their intention to support reconstruction in the aftermath of the war. The use of public–private partnerships (PPPs) may support the achievement of these outcomes and their use in Ukraine is likely to remain an important issue for Government policy-makers and their partners to consider in a variety of post-war scenarios.
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