Mortality statistics are fundamental to public health decision making. Mortality varies by time and location, and its measurement is affected by well known biases that have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories, and 252 subnational units for selected countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021. The Lancet. 10 March 2022. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02796-3

Unsere Infoboxen zeigen das Ansteckungs-, Erkrankungs- und Sterberisiko für Menschen verschiedenen Alters, wenn sie in Kontakt mit dem Influenza- oder Corona-Virus kommen (z.B. durch engen Kontakt mit einem infizierten Haushaltsmitglied) und die Risiken eines engen Kontaktes für Menschen verschiedenen Alters, wenn man selbst mit dem Influenza- oder Corona-Virus infiziert ist. Zu jeder Infobox finden Sie im Begleittext Hintergrundinformationen zur Erstellung und zu den dahinter liegenden Daten

ABSTRACT Objectives: We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations

Schlussfolgerungen auf Basis der umfassendsten Erhebungen zu nationalen und regionalen Infektionsraten November 2020

For COVID-19, as for many infectious diseases, the true level of transmission is frequently underestimated because a substantial proportion of people with the infection are undetected either because they are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and thus typically fail to present at healthcare facilities. There may also be neglected or under-served segments of the population who are less likely to access healthcare or testing. Under-detection of cases may be exacerbated during an epidemic, when testing capacity may be limited and restricted to people with severe cases and priority risk groups (such as frontline healthcare workers, elderly people and people with comorbidities). Cases may also be misdiagnosed and attributed to other diseases with similar clinical presentation, such as influenza. Differences in mortality between groups of people and countries are important proxy indicators of relative risk of death that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This document is intended to help countries estimate CFR and, if possible, IFR, as appropriately and accurately as possible, while accounting for possible biases in their estimatio

This report presents three scenarios on the impact of COVID-19 in Africa using economic growth forecasts, mortality and efforts to ameliorate impact through social grants. Likely effects are examined on per capita income, poverty and the attainment of selected Sustainable Development Goals targets. Africa’s development trajectory has suffered a severe setback, with extreme poverty rising in all the scenarios. The pandemic threatens Africa in several ways, and the report provides policy recommendations to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience

BMJ Global Health2020;5:e002914. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002914 The evidence produced in mathematical models plays a key role in shaping policy decisions in pandemics. A key question is therefore how well pandemic models relate to their implementation contexts. Drawing on the cases of Ebola and influenza, we map how sociological and anthropological research contributes in the modelling of pandemics to consider lessons for COVID-19. We show how models detach from their implementation contexts through their connections with global narratives of pandemic response, and how sociological and anthropological research can help to locate models differently. This potentiates multiple models of pandemic response attuned to their emerging situations in an iterative and adaptive science. We propose a more open approach to the modelling of pandemics which envisages the model as an intervention of deliberation in situations of evolving uncertainty. This challenges the ‘business-as-usual’ of evidence-based approaches in global health by accentuating all science, within and beyond pandemics, as ‘emergent’ and ‘adaptive’

The Lancet Global Health Published:May 12, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30229-1