Simulation

This calculator implements a classical infectious disease model — SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infected → Removed), an idealized model of spread still used in frontlines of research e.g.

In einem häufig verwendeten Modellierungskonzept, den so genannten SEIR-Modellen,1-3 wird die Bevölke-rung in verschiedene Gruppen unterteilt, und die Dy-namik der Infektionen und Erkrankungen wird über eine Modellierung der Übergänge zwischen diesen Gruppen nachgebildet. Die Buchstaben SEIR stehen für die empfänglichen (susceptible), latent infizierten (exposed – infiziert, aber noch nicht infektiös), symp-tomatisch infektiösen (infectious) und schließlich ver-storbenen oder genesenen (recovered) Anteile der Be-völkerun

Data sources:European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, as of 06 May 2020; EuroMOMONetwork, Bulletin, Week 17, 2020

The purpose of this work is to estimate potential COVID-19 case burdens in each African nation considering various social distancing interventions. Given current trends in case burden, the model estimates the potential resource needs that would be needed under different scenarios. The model is for planning purposes and is based on current understanding and the most up-to-date assumptions. Results reported here are not forecasts but scenarios that may unfold given the assumptions about social-distancing and population health. You can download scenarios for North Africa; Middle Africa; West Africa, East Africa and South Afric

19 April 2020 To contain the spread of COVID-19 and to keep infections at a manageable level, many countries have instituted lockdowns and social distancing. In India, a nationwide 21-day lockdown was announced with effect from 25 March 2020. This lockdown is expected to avert a sudden and large increase in the number of infections in the short term. Additionally, interventions such as social distancing and isolation of infected individuals over several months could reduce peak infections. Interventions such as frequent handwashing, reduced mass gatherings, contact tracing, and quarantines could slow transmission and reduce overall infections

Version 15.4.2020 Mögliche Szenarien mit unterschiedlicher Dauer und Wirkungsstärke wesentlicher Gegenmaßnahmen

2020-04-21 Rechenmodell Verlauf Deutschland Reduzierende Massnahmen Expertenparameter Infektionsverlauf Krankenhausaufenthalt

This web application serves as a planning tool for COVID-19 outbreaks in communities across the world. It implements a simple SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model with additional categories for individuals exposed to the virus that are not yet infectious, severely sick people in need of hospitalization, people in critical condition, and a fatal category