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The 2020 Report analyzes global health spending for 190 countries from 2000 to 2018 and provides insights as to the health
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spending trajectory from the MDG era to the SDG era prior to the crisis of 2020. The report shows that global spending on health continually rose between 2000 and 2018 and reached US$ 8.3 trillion or 10% of global GDP. The data also show that out-of-pocket spending has remained high in low and lower-middle income countries, representing greater than 40% of total health spending in 2018. We also report and summarize the data on expenditures for PHC, as well as by disease and intervention, including for immunization. The report also analyzes the available data on budget allocation in response to the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, we combine World Bank/IMF projections of the macroeconomic and fiscal impact of the crisis with an analysis of the historical determinants of health spending patterns and UHC indicators, and based on this, we draw out the likely implications of 2020 for future health spending, highlighting key policy and monitoring concerns.
more
The 2018 global health financing report presents health spending data for all WHO Member States between 2000 and 2016 based on the SHA 2011 methodo
...
logy. It shows a transformation trajectory for the global spending on health, with increasing domestic public funding and declining external financing. This report also presents, for the first time, spending on primary health care and specific diseases and looks closely at the relationship between spending and service coverage
more
A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid
...
through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at similar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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The Global Health Expenditure Report delves into the intricate landscape of global economies and health systems. This year, it focuses on health
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spending in 2022, the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows how countries around the world responded to the health and economic shocks of the pandemic from a financial perspective. It also considers what the future may hold as countries emerge from the pandemic. Although it is still too early to gauge whether the COVID-19 pandemic has altered long-term trends in health spending, spending appears to have peaked and is now at or below its long-term rising trend in most country income groups. Additionally, to mark the 25th anniversary of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Health Expenditure Tracking Program, the report reviews the program’s achievements and envisions a path forward. As the program’s lead technical agency, WHO is committed to working closely with partners to support countries in tracking health spending and sustaining the Global Health Expenditure Database and the Global Health Expenditure Report as global public goods.
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The results of the report clearly show that in 2020, a year dominated by the emergence of COVID-19 and its associated health and economic crises, governments around the world rose to the challenge. Sharp increases in government
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spending on health at all country income levels underpinned the rise in health spending to a new high of US $9 trillion (approximately 11% of global GDP). Government health spending generally increased and offset declines in out-of-pocket spending. Importantly, the rise in government health spending was part of a much broader fiscal response to the pandemic. In high income and upper-middle income countries social protection spending also increased sharply in as governments attempted to cushion populations from the economic impacts of COVID-19. In contrast to health and social protection, growth in education spending was relatively subdued. Countries face the further challenge of sustaining increased public spending on health and other social sectors in the face of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and rising debt servicing. This also includes the challenge of sustaining external support for low income countries, which is essential for reducing ensuring poverty, ensuring access to health services and strengthening pandemic preparedness.
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Background: Comparable estimates of health spending are crucial for the assessment of health systems and to optimally deploy
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health resources. The methods used to track health spending continue to evolve, but little is known about the distribution of spending across diseases. We developed improved estimates of health spending by source, including development assistance for health, and, for the first time, estimated HIV/AIDS spending on prevention and treatment and by source of funding, for 188 countries.
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Background: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending
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towards this goal. We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated.
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This 2019 report Global health spending: A world in transition examines how countries progress towards financing UHC in a world in transition
This 2019 report Global health spending: A world in transition examines how countries progress towards financing UHC in a world in transition
With the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing energy and cost-of-living crises, many OECD countries have had to face significant economic and societal challenges over the last five years. The succession of crises has had important implications for health
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systems and the available resources allocated to health. This policy brief examines the recent trends in health spending and discusses what is driving the latest spending trajectory.
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This paper examines the implications of the IMF’s April 2024 macro-fiscal forecast updates on government health expenditure (GHE) across 170 economies through 2029, covering nearly all years remaining to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (
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SDGs). The findings reveal wide disparities in governments' capacities to increase health spending, with differences not only observed across income groups but also within them. Primary concerns focus to two groups of low- and lower middleincome
countries: the first group is projected to experience a contraction in real per capita GHE from 2019 and 2029, threatening to reverse progress toward the health SDG targets, while the other group faces stagnation in real per capita GHE, greatly limiting advancement. The insights presented are crucial for health policymakers and their external partners to respond to evolving macro-fiscal circumstances and stabilize investment growth in health. While increasing the priority of health in spending is a key policy option, it will not be sufficient on its own. Effective responses also
require improving spending efficiency and addressing broader fiscal challenges. Without decisive action, many countries have little chance of achieving the health SDGs.
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The 2021 Report examines country health spending patterns and trends over the past 20 years, before the COVID-19 pandemic, with greater focus on public sp
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ending on health. The report also presents spending on primary health care, preliminary health expenditure in 2020 for a small set of countries (including their health spending on COVID-19) and an analysis of high-income countries spending patterns, in particular during the global financial crisis. The report also points out the need for more public investment in health to get progress towards UHC back on track and strong health security.
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A corruption event in 2009 led to changes in how donors supported the Zambian health system. Donor funding was withdrawn from the district basket mechanism, originally designed to pool donor and government financing for primary care. The withdrawal
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of these funds from the pooled financing mechanism raised questions from Government and donors regarding the impact on primary care financing during this period of aid volatility.
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In 2015, member states of the United Nations adopted the ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which included 17 global goals that targeted economic and social development.1 Goal 3, “to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages,” targets specifically marked progre
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ss in universal health coverage; improved access to safe, effective, and affordable medicines; and the end of the HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis epidemics by 2030. Although these goals can spur innovation, social and political commitment, and a drive to achieve greater health gains for less money, financial support is necessary to achieve them.
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Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health
policy and planning, and are necessary to sup
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port the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous
studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development,
countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance
and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, p
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The report summarizes key global health expenditure patterns and trends, and illustrates the potential of the new database to inform thinking about financing reforms to progress towards UHC, and also raises issues for further research. It analyses t
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he following areas:
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Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Alt
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hough health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980–2015, and health spend data from 1995–2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted.
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Lancet Public Health 2019; 4: e89–96Published OnlineNovember 13, 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ S2468-2667(18)30203-2
Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health servic
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es without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. Methods: We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country’s UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios.
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In 2021, global life expectancy at birth was 74 years whereas in sub-Saharan Africa it was 66 years. Yet in that same year, $92 per person was spent on health in sub- Saharan Africa, which is roughly one fifth of what the next lowest geographic regi
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on—North Africa and Middle East—spent ($379). The challenges to healthy lives in sub-Saharan Africa are many while health spending remains low. This study uses gross domestic product, government, and health spending data to give a more complete picture of the patterns of future health spending in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed trends in growth in gross domestic product, government health spending, development assistance for health and the prioritization of health in national spending to compare countries within sub-Saharan Africa and globally.
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