A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at simi...lar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Zambia has about 1.2 physicians, nurses, and midwives per 1000 population while the minimum acceptable density threshold is 2.3 per 1000 population. The estimated shortage of doctors, nurses and midwives in Zambia is about 14,960. However, with the projected population growth the deficit more than d...oubles disproportionately to, 25,849 in 2020, and 46,549 in 2035, at the current rate of HRH production. Worryingly, the human resources for health crisis has persisted for over 20 years. The efforts before and leading up to the development and implementation of the 2013 – 2016 National Training Operational Plan (NTOP) and the National Human Resources for Health Strategic Plan (2011 – 2016) yielded certain achievements, however, the HRH numbers and skill-mix gap remained disturbingly enormous.
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Expanding access to quality health services through task sharing
Globally, approximately 56.8 million people are in need of palliative care
services; 78% of them living in low and middle-income country yet only
about 12% have their needs being met causing great suffering for many.
This survey is part of a series of eight country surveys conducted in the context of the People that Deliver Initiative (peoplethatdeliver.org). This global initiative, which brings together the world’s largest organizations, aims to improve health services performance through the professionalizat...ion of logistics managers.
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2nd edition. The Event-based Surveillance Framework is intended to be used by authorities and agencies responsible for surveillance and response. This framework serves as an outline to guide stakeholders interested in implementing event-based surveillance (EBS) using a multisectoral, One Health appr...oach. You can download the Training Manual and Framework in Arabic, English, French, and Portuguese
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ي الغرض من إطار عمل إجراءات المراقبة القائمة عىل األحداث هو أن به
ن
تستعي السلطات والوكاالت المسؤولة عن المراقبة
ُ واالستجابة. كما
تيب إرشال تعىل سبيل المثال؛ هذ...ه الوثيقة ألصحاب المصلحة
ي
ُ
ُعد بمثابة ك
ا عاما ي
إطار استخدام
ي
الذين يرغبون ف ن
نهج "صحة واحدة" متعدد القطاعات لتنفيذ المراقبة القائمة عىل األحداث . و للقيام بذلك، تشتمل الوثيقة عىل فصول وملحق
ن مرتبطة ويمكن
للمستخدمي تغييها وتحديثها
بناء عىل احتياجاتهم الخاصة.
ُعد هذه
الت ي وت نسخة منقحة من النسخة األصلية "إطار عمل المراقبة القائمة عىل األحداث"
عام
ي
ن صدرت
ف 2018 .و ال ينسخ إطار
العمل هذا أو يحل محل أي مواد أخرى متاحة حاليا في ما يتعلق بمج ال المراقبة القائمة عىل األحداث أن
ن ؛ وبدال من ذلك، ينبعي
يستند إطار العمل إل الوثائق الموجودة سابقا ذات الصلة أو مرتبطة وأن يكون تيب
ُ
ك ا إرشاديا عملي ا لتنفيذ المراقبة القائمة عىل
األحداث أفريقيا.
ي
ن
ف ويتوافق إطار العمل ك لمنظمة الصحة العالمية
المشي
ي
هذا مع الطبعة الثالثة من التقييم الخارج فيما يتعلق
ر بالمؤشات التالية: تعزيز
ي عىل كشف األحداث ذات األهمية للصحة العامة واألمن الصح أنظمة المراقبة و اإلنذار المبكر القادر ة
ر المؤش )
حسنة والتعاون عي القطاعات وبين 1.D2)؛ مستويات استجابة الصحة العمومية الوطنية والمتوسطة
ُ
وقنوات االتصال الم
العامة واألمن الصح والمحلية فيما يتعلق بمراقبة األحداث ذات األهمية للصحة
ي
ر )المؤش
ن 2.D2)؛ القدرة عىل
وتحسي تحليل
ن البيانات عىل المستوى المتوسط والوطت ي
ر )المؤش
رش 3.D2 .)باإلضافة إل وع
الدول تنفيذ و
ي
ن
ف عرض مهام ووظائف المراقبة
القائمة عىل األحداث إذ ، اللوائح الصحية
ي
درجات التقييم المشي ك وإحراز تقدم نحو تلبية المتطلبات المبينة ف ن
ي
ستضمن زيادة ف ن
الدولية
.
تحسين أيضا، تنفيذ المراقبة المتكاملة لألمراض واالستجابة لها، وذلك بالنسبة
ي
ن
تعد هذه الوثيقة مكملة ويمكن أن تساعد ف ل لدول
ا
ي
االتحاد األفريق
ي
ن
اعتمدت االسي األعضاء ف اتيجية المتكاملة لمراقبة األمراض واالستجابة لها،
لت عىل وجه الخصوص ي
بالنسبة
للطبعة الثالثة ) 2019 تتضمن أجزاء حول
( الت المراقبة القائمة عىل األحداث ي
.
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