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A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at simi
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lar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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The role of evidence in the journey towards universal health coverage is paramount. Financial risk protection monitoring, the major focus of this report, informs where the WHO African Region stands in reducing the financial hardship people face due to health expenses. This report details the status
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of financial risk protection and related trends, the drivers of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial risk protection. As such, it provides evidence coutries can draw on to develop health financing systems and reforms that mitigate financial barriers to accessing health services. Through analysis of country data, cross-country learning and drawing on the published literature, this report proposes recommendations that countries may adapt to their contexts.
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Insufficient funding is hindering the achievement of malaria elimination targets in Africa, despite the pressing need for increased investment in malaria control. While Western donors attribute their inaction to financial constraints, the global health community has limited knowledge of China’s ex
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panding role in malaria prevention. This knowledge gap arises from the fact that China does not consistently report its foreign development assistance activities to established aid transparency initiatives. Our work focuses on identifying Chinese-funded malaria control projects throughout Africa and linking them to official data on malaria prevalence. By doing so, we aim to shed light on China’s contributions to malaria control efforts, analysing their investments and assessing their impact. This would provide valuable insights into the development of effective financing mechanisms for future malaria control in Africa.
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Tracking development assistance for health from India to low- and middle-income countries, 2009–2020
Development assistance for health (DAH) is an important source of financing for health for many low-income and some middle-income countries. Most DAH has predominantly been contributed by high-income countries. However, in the context of economic pr
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ogress and changing global priorities, DAH contributions from countries of the Global South such as India have gained importance. In this paper, we estimate DAH contributed by India between 2009 and 2020.
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Development Finance at a Turning Point: Effects and Policy Recommendations
Berensmann K., Laudage Teles S., Sommer C., et al.
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
(2023)
CC
Development finance is at a turning point, as the macroeconomic environment has changed profoundly and the financing gap for low- and middle-income countries has widened. The events that led to this new situation are the multiple crises that the glo
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bal economy is facing, such as the climate crisis, the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. As a
result, interest rates have risen sharply over the past year and are not expected to decline anytime soon. High interest rates further restrict low- and middle-income countries’ access to international financial markets by making borrowing more expensive. At the same time, debt
levels in several countries are rising to levels that are almost impossible to repay. Poorer countries find themselves in a trap where financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) becomes a distant goal for them.
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Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) is a politicalambition in many low- and middle-income countries(LMICs). Public funding has been recognized as funda-mental to the two dimensions of UHC: expanding healthservice coverage and increasing protection against health-related financial hardship. Rel
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atedly, there is growing con-sensus in academic and applied policy circles that publicfinancial management (PFM)—the “systems engineering”of public financing—is a critical enabling factor for anyhealth system reform in support of UHC.
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Climate change is adversely affecting human health. Rapid and wide-scale adaptation is urgently needed given the negative impact climate change has across the socio-environmental determinants of health. The mobilisation of climate finance is critical to accelerate adaptation towards a climate resili
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ent health sector. However, a comprehensive understanding
of how much bilateral and multilateral climate adaptation financing has been channelled to the health sector is currently missing. Here, we provide a baseline estimate of a decade’s worth of international climate adaptation finance for the health sector. We systematically searched international financial reporting databases to analyse 1) the volumes, and geographic targeting, of adaptation finance for the health sector globally between 2009–2019 and 2) the focus of health adaptation projects based on a content analysis of publicly available project documentation.
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Nigeria’s healthcare system faces significant challenges in financing and quality, impacting the delivery of services to its growing population. This study investigates healthcare workers’ perceptions of these challenges and their implications f
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or healthcare policy and practice. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 600 healthcare professionals from eight states across Nigeria, representing a variety of healthcare occupations. Participants completed a questionnaire that assessed their perceptions of healthcare financing, quality of care, job satisfaction, and motivation using a 5-point Likert scale, closed- and open-ended questions. Descriptive statistics, Chi-squared test, and regression analysis were used to analyze the data. The findings revealed that healthcare workers were generally not satisfied with the current state of healthcare financing and system quality in Nigeria. Poor funding, inadequate infrastructure, insufficient staffing, and limited access to essential resources were identified as major challenges.
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In 2019, the Task Force on Fiscal Policy for Health concluded that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages were a highly effective but greatly underused policy tool to reduce consumption, save lives, and raise domestic resources. The Task Force estimated that if all countries increa
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sed their excise taxes to raise prices by 50 percent, over 50 million premature deaths could be averted worldwide over the next 50 years while
raising over USD 20 trillion of additional revenue. Since the Task Force first convened, the world has faced a “polycrisis,” including a global pandemic, an economic recession, and the outbreak of wars in Europe and the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the world has also experienced prolonged health and fiscal crises. Health systems, weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic, lack sufficient financing to rebuild and respond to the surging noncommunicable diseases epidemic caused by uncontrolled risk factors such as tobacco, alcohol, and sugar consumption. Opportunities to raise domestic resources are limited and debt burdens have squeezed budgets. The period from 2019 to 2027 risks becoming a “lost decade” for health and social policies, with 110 countries facing little prospect of any
ability to raise government revenues beyond current levels. In this paper, we describe the current health and fiscal crises and review the contribution that health taxes could make in turning around this dire situation. We conclude that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and
sugar-sweetened beverages are an ideal policy solution—good for the budget and good for health. These taxes are relatively quick to implement, and, unlike other taxes, do not put economic growth at risk—a vital benefit in the current era.
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The report examines financing in the battle against malaria, focusing on the role of foreign aid. It analyzes whether or not a disease such as malaria can be controlled or eliminated in Africa without health aid. It also presents a theoretical model
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of the economics of malaria and shows how health aid can help avoid the “disease trap.” While calling for increased funding from international sources to fight malaria, it also recommends that African countries step up their own efforts, including on domestic resource mobilization. In 2016, governments of endemic countries contributed 31% of the estimated total of US $ 2.7 billion.
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Impact of health systems strengthening on coverage of maternal health services in Rwanda, 2000–2010: a systematic review
Maurice Bucagu, Jean M. Kagubare, Paulin Basinga, Fidèle Ngabo, Barbara K Timmons & Angela C Lee
Reproductive Health Matters
(2012)
CC
From 2000 to 2010, Rwanda implemented comprehensive health sector reforms to strengthen the public health system, with the aim of reducing maternal and newborn deaths in line with Millennium Development Goal 5, among many other improvements in national health. Based on a systematic review of the lit
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erature, national policy documents and three Demographic & Health Surveys (2000, 2005 and 2010), this paper describes the reforms and the policies they were based on, and provides data on the extent of Rwanda’s progress in expanding the coverage of four key women’s health services. Progress took place in 2000–2005 and became more rapid after 2006, mostly in rural areas, when the national facility-based childbirth policy, performance-based financing, and community-based health insurance were scaled up. Between 2006 and 2010, the following increases in coverage took place as compared to 2000–2005, particularly in rural areas, where most poor women live: births with skilled attendance (77% increase vs. 26%), institutional delivery (146% increase vs. 8%), and contraceptive prevalence (351% increase vs. 150%). The primary factors in these improvements were increases in the health workforce and their skills, performance-based financing, community-based health insurance, and better leadership and governance. Further research is needed to determine the impact of these changes on health outcomes in women and children.
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The 2018 global health financing report presents health spending data for all WHO Member States between 2000 and 2016 based on the SHA 2011 methodology. It shows a transformation trajectory for the global spending on health, with increasing domestic
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public funding and declining external financing. This report also presents, for the first time, spending on primary health care and specific diseases and looks closely at the relationship between spending and service coverage
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Strengthening health financing to accelerate progress towards universal health coverage. Total Government Health Expenditure exceeds the commitment by African Union member states to commit at least 15% of their budgets to the health sector. With a
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sector allocation of 16.6% of total budget in 2022/23 and average per capita spending estimated at US$407 (N$6,500.00), health spending in Namibia is one of the highest in SADC. The Government is thus encouraged to sustain this level of investment to safeguard the gains achieved and make progress towards SDGs. This could be achieved through the development of a national health financing strategy to mobilise additional and innovative resources for the sector.
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R4D conducted a thorough desk review and qualitative fiscal space analysis, 19 interviews about financing for the three diseases and the extent of alignment between public financial management systems and health policy objectives, and a validation w
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orkshop with government officials.
Tanzania’s disease response faces a triple transition challenge: replacing donor funding, closing the resource gap that would exist even with donor funding, and more efficiently delivering on disease response objectives. more
Tanzania’s disease response faces a triple transition challenge: replacing donor funding, closing the resource gap that would exist even with donor funding, and more efficiently delivering on disease response objectives. more
The report explores strategies for sustaining the country’s responses to the three diseases and eventually transitioning away from external funding and programmatic support. It takes stock of Kenya’s health financing landscape and identifies opp
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ortunities and challenges for sustaining effective coverage of HIV, TB, and malaria services in the long run, mindful of macro-fiscal and institutional constraints. The report informs ongoing dialogue within government, including among the Ministry of Health, National Treasury, Council of Governors, and National AIDS Control Council, as well as between government and development partners.
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Development assistance for health (DAH) is an important part of financing healthcare in low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the gross disbursement of DAH of the 29 Development Assistance Committee (DAC) member countries of the Organisatio
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n for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for 2011–2019; and clarified its flows, including aid type,
channel, target region, and target health focus area. Data from the OECD iLibrary were used. The DAH definition was based on the OECD sector classification. For core funding to non-healthspecific multilateral agencies, we estimated DAH and its flows based on the OECD methodology for
calculating imputed multilateral official development assistance (ODA).
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This report explores community-focused change initiatives in the financing, organization, and delivery of mental health services in Peru from 2013 to 2016. It examines the national dimension of reforms but focuses above all on implementation and res
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ults in the economically fragile district of Carabayllo, in northern Lima.
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