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Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu
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re dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.
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One Earth Perspective. Cell Press
February 2020Earth's Future 8(2):e2019EF001377.The water planetary boundary attempts to provide a global limit to anthropogenic water cycle modifications, but it has been challenging to translate and apply it to the regional and local scales at which water problems and management typically occur. We
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develop a cross‐scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features (e.g., watershed or aquifer), political borders (e.g., city, nation, or group of nations), or commercial entities (e.g., corporation, trade group, or financial institution).
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PNAS 2022 Vol. 119 No. 7 e2109217118
The authors conduct an integrated survey of Antimicrobial Resistant Organisms (AMR) in drinking water, wastewater and surface water in three settings in Bangladesh: rural households, rural poultry farms, and urban food markets. Results show that untreated water discharged from rural households, poul
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try farms and urban markets are major contributors to surface water pollution and antibiotic resistant bacteria genes, calling for increased surveillance and monitoring.
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Joule 5, 2687–2714 October 20, 2021 Cell Press
Constraints, Technologies, Policies and Processes
The Lancet Planetary Health Volume 6, ISSUE 4, e342-e349, April 01, 2022. Human impacts on earth-system processes are overshooting several planetary boundaries, driving a crisis of ecological breakdown. This crisis is being caused in large part by global resource extraction, which has increased dra
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matically over the past half century. We propose a novel method for quantifying national responsibility for ecological breakdown by assessing nations’ cumulative material use in excess of equitable and sustainable boundaries.
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The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol.5 Issue 2, Feb. 1,2021.
Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying “well below 2°C”, which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequa
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te to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence.
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One Health 5 (2018) 34–36
Science of The Total Environment Volume 764, 10 April 2021, 142919
Screening programmes for tuberculosis (TB) among immigrants rarely consider the heterogeneity of
risk related to migrants’ country of origin. We assess the performance of a large screening programme in asylum seekers by analysing (i) the difference in yield and numbers needed to screen (NNS) by c
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ountry and WHO-reported TB burden, (ii) the possible impact of screening thresholds on sensitivity, and (iii) the value of WHO-estimated TB burden to improve the prediction accuracy of screening yield.
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Global Qualitative Nursing Research March 31, 2021 Research Article Find in PubMed
https://doi.org/10.1177/23333936211005475
The aim of this article is to identify the elements behind the country’s successful COVID-19 rollout as well as lessons and chal lenges derived from this process. The analysis is relevant to many countries today—as they keep searching for strategies to cope with the second year of the COVID-19 p
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andemic and the challenge of implementing a large-scale vaccine rollout—and in the coming years—as new variants develop and unceertainty about the vaccination strategy increases.
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Panam Salud Publica. 2021;45:e22. https://doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2021.22
A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Vol.399 Issue 10341 p.2129-2154
Human resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 s
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trategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance.
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Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2021;45:e74.
Some characteristics of patients and healthcare providers influence treatment success in MDR-TB cases. Physicians’ and nurses’ knowledge about MDR-TB must be improved, and follow-up of MDR-TB patients who are living with HIV and of those affiliated with the
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subsidized health insurance scheme in Colombia must be strengthened, as these patients have a lower likelihood of a successful treatment outcome.
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Rev. Latino-Am. Enfermagem 2019;27:e3086 DOI: 10.1590/1518-8345.2608.3086
