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Government health expenditure is a primary means of financing health services in many countries. Research assessing the relation between government
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health expenditure and development assistance for health channelled to governments (DAH-G) has produced contradictory conclusions. This research aims to credibly estimate displacement and measure if the DAH-G effect is symmetric or if increases and decreases in DAH-G have distinct effects.
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A corruption event in 2009 led to changes in how donors supported the Zambian health system. Donor funding was withdrawn from the district basket mechanism, originally designed to pool donor and government
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financing for primary care. The withdrawal of these funds from the pooled financing mechanism raised questions from Government and donors regarding the impact on primary care financing during this period of aid volatility.
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A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these change
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s vary substantially across countries, even at similar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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The role of evidence in the journey towards universal health coverage is paramount. Financial risk protection monitoring, the major focus of this report, informs where the WHO African Region stands in reducing the financial hardship people face due
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to health expenses. This report details the status of financial risk protection and related trends, the drivers of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial risk protection. As such, it provides evidence coutries can draw on to develop health financing systems and reforms that mitigate financial barriers to accessing health services. Through analysis of country data, cross-country learning and drawing on the published literature, this report proposes recommendations that countries may adapt to their contexts.
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Tracking development assistance for health from India to low- and middle-income countries, 2009–2020
Development assistance for health (DAH) is an important source of financing for health for many low-income and some middle-income countries. Most D
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AH has predominantly been contributed by high-income countries. However, in the context of economic progress and changing global priorities, DAH contributions from countries of the Global South such as India have gained importance. In this paper, we estimate DAH contributed by India between 2009 and 2020.
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Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) is a politicalambition in many low- and middle-income countries(LMICs). Public funding has been recognized as funda-mental to the two dimensions of UHC: expanding healthservice coverage and increasing protec
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tion against health-related financial hardship. Relatedly, there is growing con-sensus in academic and applied policy circles that publicfinancial management (PFM)—the “systems engineering”of public financing—is a critical enabling factor for anyhealth system reform in support of UHC.
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Climate change is adversely affecting human health. Rapid and wide-scale adaptation is urgently needed given the negative impact climate change has across the socio-environmental determinants of health
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. The mobilisation of climate finance is critical to accelerate adaptation towards a climate resilient health sector. However, a comprehensive understanding
of how much bilateral and multilateral climate adaptation financing has been channelled to the health sector is currently missing. Here, we provide a baseline estimate of a decade’s worth of international climate adaptation finance for the health sector. We systematically searched international financial reporting databases to analyse 1) the volumes, and geographic targeting, of adaptation finance for the health sector globally between 2009–2019 and 2) the focus of health adaptation projects based on a content analysis of publicly available project documentation.
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There is growing pressure on PEPFAR, the U.S. global HIV program, to increase its planning for sustainability, including through domestic resource mobilization and, ultimately, transitioning financing at
least in part to recipient countries. While
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this is connected to a broader push in global health and development, driven by a constrained financing environment and desire to promote more countryownership of programs and services, there are specific questions facing PEPFAR’s future. A National Academy report from 2017, for example, recommended that PEPFAR look toward phasing down its spending and supporting countries in their transition from bilateral aid to domestic financing for HIV. At a
Senate hearing last year, PEPFAR was asked how it was working to increase domestic resources and under what conditions would it need less resources to accomplish its goals. Recent challenges in securing a five-year reauthorization of the program have only served to heighten the focus on
sustainability and domestic resource mobilization. How PEPFAR does this, however, remains an ongoing question.
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The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical gaps in the global response to health crises, particularly in the financing of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, recovery, and reconstruction. This
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chapter presents a comprehensive framework for pandemic financing that spans the entire pandemic cycle, emphasizing the need for timely, adequate, and effective financial resources. The framework is designed to support
policymakers in both low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income nations, providing a guide to appropriate financing tools for each stage of a pandemic, from prevention and preparedness to response and recovery. Key economic concepts such as global public goods, time preference, and incentives are explored to underscore the complexities of pandemic financing.
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In 2019, the Task Force on Fiscal Policy for Health concluded that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages were a highly effective but greatly underused policy tool to reduce consumption, save lives, and raise domestic resources. Th
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e Task Force estimated that if all countries increased their excise taxes to raise prices by 50 percent, over 50 million premature deaths could be averted worldwide over the next 50 years while
raising over USD 20 trillion of additional revenue. Since the Task Force first convened, the world has faced a “polycrisis,” including a global pandemic, an economic recession, and the outbreak of wars in Europe and the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the world has also experienced prolonged health and fiscal crises. Health systems, weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic, lack sufficient financing to rebuild and respond to the surging noncommunicable diseases epidemic caused by uncontrolled risk factors such as tobacco, alcohol, and sugar consumption. Opportunities to raise domestic resources are limited and debt burdens have squeezed budgets. The period from 2019 to 2027 risks becoming a “lost decade” for health and social policies, with 110 countries facing little prospect of any
ability to raise government revenues beyond current levels. In this paper, we describe the current health and fiscal crises and review the contribution that health taxes could make in turning around this dire situation. We conclude that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and
sugar-sweetened beverages are an ideal policy solution—good for the budget and good for health. These taxes are relatively quick to implement, and, unlike other taxes, do not put economic growth at risk—a vital benefit in the current era.
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Donor financing to low- and middle-income countries for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health increased substantially from 2008 to 2013. However, increased spending by donors might not i
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mprove outcomes, if funds are delivered in ways that undermine countries’ public financial management systems and incur high transaction costs for project implementation
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Impact of health systems strengthening on coverage of maternal health services in Rwanda, 2000–2010: a systematic review
Maurice Bucagu, Jean M. Kagubare, Paulin Basinga, Fidèle Ngabo, Barbara K Timmons & Angela C Lee
Reproductive Health Matters
(2012)
CC
From 2000 to 2010, Rwanda implemented comprehensive health sector reforms to strengthen the public health system, with the aim of reducing maternal and newborn deaths in line with Millennium Develop
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ment Goal 5, among many other improvements in national health. Based on a systematic review of the literature, national policy documents and three Demographic & Health Surveys (2000, 2005 and 2010), this paper describes the reforms and the policies they were based on, and provides data on the extent of Rwanda’s progress in expanding the coverage of four key women’s health services. Progress took place in 2000–2005 and became more rapid after 2006, mostly in rural areas, when the national facility-based childbirth policy, performance-based financing, and community-based health insurance were scaled up. Between 2006 and 2010, the following increases in coverage took place as compared to 2000–2005, particularly in rural areas, where most poor women live: births with skilled attendance (77% increase vs. 26%), institutional delivery (146% increase vs. 8%), and contraceptive prevalence (351% increase vs. 150%). The primary factors in these improvements were increases in the health workforce and their skills, performance-based financing, community-based health insurance, and better leadership and governance. Further research is needed to determine the impact of these changes on health outcomes in women and children.
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The GFF needs an additional US$2.5 billion from 2021 to 2025 to enable countries to protect health gains and accelerate progress toward the 2030 Goals. Of this amount, the GFF urgently needs to secure new pledges of US$1.2 billion by the end of 202
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1 to help its current 36 partner countries protect and maintain essential health services and implement time-sensitive service delivery and health system improvements to enable a sharp bend of the curve back to a positive trajectory to close the gap to the SDGs.
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Strengthening health financing to accelerate progress towards universal health coverage. Total Government
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Health Expenditure exceeds the commitment by African Union member states to commit at least 15% of their budgets to the health sector. With a sector allocation of 16.6% of total budget in 2022/23 and average per capita spending estimated at US$407 (N$6,500.00), health spending in Namibia is one of the highest in SADC. The Government is thus encouraged to sustain this level of investment to safeguard the gains achieved and make progress towards SDGs. This could be achieved through the development of a national health financing strategy to mobilise additional and innovative resources for the sector.
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Monitoring financial protection and utilization of health services in Mongolia 2009-2018 is based on national representative household socioeconomic surveys. The study finds that between 2009 and 2018, despite ambitious
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health reforms, the incidence of catastrophic health spending and impoverishing spending at the relative poverty line have increased. These increases were mainly driven by out-of-pocket spending on medicines and inpatient care. In the same period, inequity in access to and utilization of health services remained constant among population groups. Evidence suggests health financing policies need to be further strengthened to make progress towards universal health coverage. Continuous tracking of out-of-pocket payments and service utilization to inform policymaking is needed.
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The 2018 global health financing report presents health spending data for all WHO Member States between 2000 and 2016 based on the SHA 2011 methodo
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logy. It shows a transformation trajectory for the global spending on health, with increasing domestic public funding and declining external financing. This report also presents, for the first time, spending on primary health care and specific diseases and looks closely at the relationship between spending and service coverage
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Thefirst report on Latin America and the Carribean presents key indicators on health and health systems in 33 Latin America and the Caribbean countries. . Analysis is based on the latest comparable
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data across almost 100 indicators including equity, health status, determinants of health, health care resources and utilisation, health expenditure and financing, and quality of care. The editorial discusses the main challenges for the region brought by the COVID-19 pandemic, such as managing the outbreak as well as mobilising adequate resources and using them efficiently to ensure an effective response to the epidemic.
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Ukrainian decentralization reform has increased and democratized local government responsibility for health care at the level of local government closest to communities and has increased regional and local government responsibility for public
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health. Decentralization affects health system reform in three important areas: health financing, individual health services and public health.
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