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1
This paper was commissioned by N´weti and Wemos as part
of the project “Equitable health financing for a strong health
system in Mozambique”. Its purpose is to contribute to the
debate of the Mozambican Ministry of Health’s draft Health
Sector Financing Strategy (HSFS) 2025 – 2034
We investigate whether and to what extent Chinese development finance affects infant mortality, combining 92 demographic and health surveys (DHS) for a maximum of 53 countries and almost 55,000 sub-national locations over the 2002-2014 period. We address causality by instrumenting aid with a set of
...
interacted variables. Variation over
time results from indicators that measure the availability of funding in a given year. Cross-sectional variation results from a sub-national region’s “probability to receive aid.” Controlled for this probability in tandem with fixed effects for country-years and provinces, the interactions of these variables form powerful and excludable instruments. Our results show that Chinese aid increases infant mortality at sub-national scales, but decreases mortality at the countrylevel. In several tests, we show that this stark contrast likely results from aid being fungible within recipient countries.
more
To realize Agenda 2030, aid agencies, private philanthropies, and their partners in the Global South need better data to monitor how official development finance (ODF) dollars advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and avoid missing the mark. In this report, we summarize the results of a n
...
ovel effort to tag and analyze 2.7 million ODF projects between 2010-2021 using machine learning to understand their contributions to the SDG thematic areas at a goal
and target level. This time frame is instructive: it compares the last six years of the Millennium Development Goals era and the first six years of the new SDG age, from early optimism to later uncertainty about the resilience of the agenda to drive collective commitments amid unanticipated global shocks.
more
In contrast to bilateral aid, aid disbursed from
multilateral institutions increased significantly at the onset
of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, at a time when a coherent
and effective multilateral response is needed most, the
COVID-19 pandemic revealed a shifting landscape of donor
agencies that
...
struggle with basic functions, such as crossnational coordination. While multilaterals are uniquely
positioned to transcend national priorities and respond
to pandemics, functionally we find official development
assistance (ODA) from these entities may increasingly
mimic the attributes of bilateral aid. We explore three
important, but not comprehensive, attributes of aid leading
up to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: (1) earmarking,
(2) donor concentration and (3) aid modality.
more
Over the past decade, countries in the African region experienced slow progress in mobilizing resources for health while facing continued challenges. In their revised estimates published in 2017, Stenberg et al., developed two costs scenarios, termed progress and ambitious, aimed at strengthening co
...
mprehensive health service delivery to achieve SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries (Stenberg et al., 2017). Out of the 47 countries in the WHO African region only eight, on average, met the recommended threshold of spending a minimum of US$ 249 per capita on health during the period from 2012 to 2020. In 2020, this achievement was observed in only five countries while the remaining countries spent less than US$ 249 per capita, with health expenditures ranging from US$ 16.4 to US$ 236.6, highlighting significant disparities across the region.
more
Africa’s health sector is facing an unprecedented financing crisis, driven by a sharp decline of 70% in Official Development Assistance (ODA) from 2021 to 2025 and deep-rooted structural vulnerabilities. This collapse is placing immense pressure on Africa’s already fragile health systems as ODA
...
is seen as the backbone of critical health programs: pandemic preparedness, maternal and child health services, disease control programs are all at
risk, threatening Sustainable Development Goal 3 and Universal Health Coverage. Compounding this is Africa’s spiraling debt, with countries expected to service USD 81 billion by 2025—surpassing anticipated external financing inflows—further eroding fiscal space for health investments. Level of domestic resources is low. TThe Abuja Declaration of 2001, a pivotal commitment made by African Union (AU) member states, aimed to reverse this trend by pledging to allocate at least 15% of national budgets to the health sector. However, more than two decades later, only three countries—Rwanda, Botswana, and Cabo Verde—have
consistently met or exceeded this target (WHO, 2023). In contrast, over 30 AU member states remain well below the 10% benchmark, with some allocating as little as 5–7% of their national budgets to health.
In addition, only 16 (29%) of African countries currently have updated versions of National Health Development Plan (NHDP) supported by a National Health Financing Plan (NHFP). These two documents play a critical role in driving internal resource mobilisation. At the same time, public health emergencies are surging, rising 41%—from 152 in 2022 to
213 in 2024—exposing severe under-resourcing of health infrastructure and workforce. Recurring outbreaks (Mpox, Ebola, cholera, measles, Marburg…) alongside effects of climate change and humanitarian crises in Eastern DRC, the Sahel, and Sudan, are overwhelming systems stretched by chronic underfunding. The situation is worsened by Africa’s heavy dependency with over 90% of vaccines, medicines, and diagnostics being externally sourced—leaving countries vulnerable to global supply chain shocks. Health worker shortages persist, with only 2.3 professionals
per 1,000 people (below the WHO’s recommended 4.45), and fewer than 30% of systems are digitized, undermining disease surveillance and early warning. Without decisive action, Africa CDC projects the continent could reverse two decades of health progress, face 2 to 4 million additional preventable deaths annually, and a heightened risk of a pandemic emerging from within. Furthermore, 39 million more
Africans could be pushed into poverty by 2030 due to intertwined health and economic shocks. This is not just a sectoral crisis—it is an existential threat to Africa’s political, social, and economic resilience, and global stability. In response, African leaders, under Africa CDC’s stewardship, are advancing a comprehensive three-pillar strategy centered on domestic resource mobilization, innovative financing, and blended finance.
more
The Council was established in late 2020 by Dr Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus (Director-General, WHO) to provide new economic thinking – reassessing how health and wellbeing are valued, produced and distributed across the economy. An all-female group of 10 distinguished economists and area experts, t
...
he Council has focused on reimagining how to put Health for All at the heart of government decision-making and private sector collaboration at regional, national and international levels.
more
This paper examines the implications of the IMF’s April 2024 macro-fiscal forecast updates on government health expenditure (GHE) across 170 economies through 2029, covering nearly all years remaining to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings reveal wide disparities in gove
...
rnments' capacities to increase health spending, with differences not only observed across income groups but also within them. Primary concerns focus to two groups of low- and lower middleincome
countries: the first group is projected to experience a contraction in real per capita GHE from 2019 and 2029, threatening to reverse progress toward the health SDG targets, while the other group faces stagnation in real per capita GHE, greatly limiting advancement. The insights presented are crucial for health policymakers and their external partners to respond to evolving macro-fiscal circumstances and stabilize investment growth in health. While increasing the priority of health in spending is a key policy option, it will not be sufficient on its own. Effective responses also
require improving spending efficiency and addressing broader fiscal challenges. Without decisive action, many countries have little chance of achieving the health SDGs.
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Conditioned domestic financing policy, referring to the domestic financing of health projects, programs, and national responses conditioned by global health funding agencies and recipient country governments, is one mechanism to promote sustainability and country ownership. We aim to understand how
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the concept is defined and operationalized by agencies and how such policies relate to overall health spending patterns.
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There has never been a more critical moment to invest in WHO, and strengthen the unique role it plays in global health. Now is the time to sustainably finance WHO and invest in a healthy return for all.
In 2019, the Task Force on Fiscal Policy for Health concluded that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages were a highly effective but greatly underused policy tool to reduce consumption, save lives, and raise domestic resources. The Task Force estimated that if all countries increa
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sed their excise taxes to raise prices by 50 percent, over 50 million premature deaths could be averted worldwide over the next 50 years while
raising over USD 20 trillion of additional revenue. Since the Task Force first convened, the world has faced a “polycrisis,” including a global pandemic, an economic recession, and the outbreak of wars in Europe and the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the world has also experienced prolonged health and fiscal crises. Health systems, weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic, lack sufficient financing to rebuild and respond to the surging noncommunicable diseases epidemic caused by uncontrolled risk factors such as tobacco, alcohol, and sugar consumption. Opportunities to raise domestic resources are limited and debt burdens have squeezed budgets. The period from 2019 to 2027 risks becoming a “lost decade” for health and social policies, with 110 countries facing little prospect of any
ability to raise government revenues beyond current levels. In this paper, we describe the current health and fiscal crises and review the contribution that health taxes could make in turning around this dire situation. We conclude that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and
sugar-sweetened beverages are an ideal policy solution—good for the budget and good for health. These taxes are relatively quick to implement, and, unlike other taxes, do not put economic growth at risk—a vital benefit in the current era.
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Questions concerning the relevance and reform of official development assistance (ODA), and how ODA and broader development finance could—or should—change to better reflect shifting demands are not new, with academics and policymakers suggesting a range of options for reform. In this background
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note, we briefly review the major reform proposals from 2009 onwards, highlighting the key issues underlying approaches to ODA reforms, and the main “types” of proposals typically put forward.
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All malaria-endemic countries in the Region of the Americas have taken on the challenge to eliminate the disease and to put in place measures to orient their health programs and strategies in that direction. This manual explains how to implement measures to achieve malaria elimination and prevent it
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s reestablishment by increasing the intensity and quality of interventions, reorienting initiatives, reducing delays that favor transmission, and ensuring adequate monitoring to adjust interventions.
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National Strategic Plan: Malaria Elimination 2023-27
National Centre for Vector Borne Disease Control (NCVBDC)
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) - India
(2023)
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The National Strategic Plan for Malaria Elimination in India (2023-2027) focuses on achieving malaria elimination by 2030, in alignment with the Global Technical Strategy. The document outlines the strategies, targets, and goals for malaria elimination, aiming for zero indigenous malaria cases by 20
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27. It emphasizes district-based planning, robust surveillance systems, and enhancing case management and vector control. The plan stresses the importance of universal access to treatment, prevention, and data-driven decision-making. Furthermore, it encourages innovation and research in malaria elimination efforts, fostering multisectoral coordination and community engagement.
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This technical note provides guidance on actions to accelerate P. falciparum elimination in areas close to achieving this goal without compromising unified malaria elimination efforts (P. vivax - P. falciparum), while contributing to the country's ultimate goal of eliminating malaria overall.
This publication uses graphics to explain the importance of development cooperation in general and for health in particular. Financial contributions in the context of development cooperation have proven to be indispensable, effective, affordable and responsible in recent decades.
2nd edition. This second edition builds on the experience of more than 10 years of SMC deployment, and reflects changes introduced in the WHO guidelines for malaria, 3 June 2022. The goal of this publication is to share these best practices to improve SMC implementation, coverage, and monitoring and
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evaluation. Examples of materials and tools as well as links to resources are included to support managers and health workers in their efforts to conduct successful SMC activities and prevent malaria among vulnerable children.
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Developed under the USAID-supported HRH2030 Capacity Building for Malaria (CBM) initiative, this guide offers a comprehensive framework for advising National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs) through the use of long-term technical advisors (LTTAs). It sets out key practices for implementing partner
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s and advisors, covering advisor selection, onboarding, contextual analysis and capacity-building strategies at individual and organisational levels. It emphasises collaborative work planning, continuous performance monitoring, stakeholder engagement and the use of assessment tools such as the Capability Maturity Model (CMM) and the Organisational Development Assessment (ODA). The guide is designed to strengthen the leadership and operational effectiveness of NMCPs, promoting sustainable improvements in malaria control through structured mentorship, knowledge transfer and strategic partnerships.
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This malaria case management training manual was developed by the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) of Ethiopia, in collaboration with several national and international partners. Primarily based on WHO guidelines and training materials, as well as the 2022 national malaria guidelines and various te
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chnical documents, it aims to provide a standardised, simplified resource for clinical health workers in both the public and private sectors in Ethiopia. The manual aims to provide clinical health workers in both the public and private sectors in Ethiopia with a standardised, simplified resource.
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The Strategic Malaria Communication Guide for Central America is intended to facilitate the shift from malaria control to elimination by strengthening communication and advocacy initiatives throughout the region. Based on interviews and a review of literature, the guide offers National Malaria Progr
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ammes (NMPs) recommendations on messaging, target audiences, communication channels and advocacy strategies. The guide's primary goals are to raise awareness of malaria elimination, encourage long-term commitment from decision-makers and mobilise sustainable resources. The guide outlines two strategic objectives: (1) creating a shared understanding of the long-term requirements for malaria elimination, including funding, surveillance and multi-sectoral engagement, and (2) expanding support among public, private and cross-sectoral stakeholders. With malaria cases having already reduced by 88% since 2000, the guide emphasises the importance of maintaining focus and investment in order to fully eliminate the disease and prevent its re-establishment in Central America.
Accessed on 10/06/2025.
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