Information for families affected
British Journal of Medicine & Medical Research
11(4): 1-6, 2016, Article no.BJMMR.21444
ISSN: 2231-0614, NLM ID: 101570965
Published 27th September 2015
BMJ 2009; 338 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b158 (Published 05 February 2009)
Cite this as: BMJ 2009;338:b158
Correspondence to: A Burns alistair.burns@manchester.ac.uk
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BMJ Global Health2020;5:e002914. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002914
The evidence produced in mathematical models plays a key role in shaping policy decisions in pandemics. A key question is therefore how well pandemic models relate to their implementation contexts. Drawing on the cases of Ebola and in...fluenza, we map how sociological and anthropological research contributes in the modelling of pandemics to consider lessons for COVID-19. We show how models detach from their implementation contexts through their connections with global narratives of pandemic response, and how sociological and anthropological research can help to locate models differently. This potentiates multiple models of pandemic response attuned to their emerging situations in an iterative and adaptive science. We propose a more open approach to the modelling of pandemics which envisages the model as an intervention of deliberation in situations of evolving uncertainty. This challenges the ‘business-as-usual’ of evidence-based approaches in global health by accentuating all science, within and beyond pandemics, as ‘emergent’ and ‘adaptive’.
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