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Tax capacity—the policy, institutional, and technical capabilities to collect tax revenue—is part of a deeper process of state building that is essential for achieving the sustainable development goals. This Staff Discussion Note shows that developing countries have made some progress in revenue
...
mobilization during the past decades, but that much more is needed. It finds that a staggering 9 percentage-point increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio is feasible through a combination of tax system reform and institutional capacity building. Achieving this calls for a holistic and institution-based approach that focuses on improving policy, administration, and legal implementation of core taxes. The note offers practical lessons and guidance, based on IMF capacity-building experience in this area.
more
The role of evidence in the journey towards universal health coverage is paramount. Financial risk protection monitoring, the major focus of this report, informs where the WHO African Region stands in reducing the financial hardship people face due to health expenses. This report details the status
...
of financial risk protection and related trends, the drivers of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial risk protection. As such, it provides evidence coutries can draw on to develop health financing systems and reforms that mitigate financial barriers to accessing health services. Through analysis of country data, cross-country learning and drawing on the published literature, this report proposes recommendations that countries may adapt to their contexts.
more
This study aims to provide an overview of health financing in Africa and to examine the impact of the reemergence of mpox on health financing in the region.
As part of the project ‘Equitable health financing for a strong health system in Mozambique’, N’weti and Wemos developed this policy brief with actionable policy recommendations for the Mozambican government and international organizations on how to increase resources for health in a sustainab
...
le and equitable manner. With global cooperation and adequate fiscal reforms, Mozambique can secure quality healthcare for its population and move toward a more self-reliant and healthy future.
more
This paper was commissioned by N´weti and Wemos as part
of the project “Equitable health financing for a strong health
system in Mozambique”. Its purpose is to contribute to the
debate of the Mozambican Ministry of Health’s draft Health
Sector Financing Strategy (HSFS) 2025 – 2034
We investigate whether and to what extent Chinese development finance affects infant mortality, combining 92 demographic and health surveys (DHS) for a maximum of 53 countries and almost 55,000 sub-national locations over the 2002-2014 period. We address causality by instrumenting aid with a set of
...
interacted variables. Variation over
time results from indicators that measure the availability of funding in a given year. Cross-sectional variation results from a sub-national region’s “probability to receive aid.” Controlled for this probability in tandem with fixed effects for country-years and provinces, the interactions of these variables form powerful and excludable instruments. Our results show that Chinese aid increases infant mortality at sub-national scales, but decreases mortality at the countrylevel. In several tests, we show that this stark contrast likely results from aid being fungible within recipient countries.
more
To realize Agenda 2030, aid agencies, private philanthropies, and their partners in the Global South need better data to monitor how official development finance (ODF) dollars advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and avoid missing the mark. In this report, we summarize the results of a n
...
ovel effort to tag and analyze 2.7 million ODF projects between 2010-2021 using machine learning to understand their contributions to the SDG thematic areas at a goal
and target level. This time frame is instructive: it compares the last six years of the Millennium Development Goals era and the first six years of the new SDG age, from early optimism to later uncertainty about the resilience of the agenda to drive collective commitments amid unanticipated global shocks.
more
In contrast to bilateral aid, aid disbursed from
multilateral institutions increased significantly at the onset
of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, at a time when a coherent
and effective multilateral response is needed most, the
COVID-19 pandemic revealed a shifting landscape of donor
agencies that
...
struggle with basic functions, such as crossnational coordination. While multilaterals are uniquely
positioned to transcend national priorities and respond
to pandemics, functionally we find official development
assistance (ODA) from these entities may increasingly
mimic the attributes of bilateral aid. We explore three
important, but not comprehensive, attributes of aid leading
up to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: (1) earmarking,
(2) donor concentration and (3) aid modality.
more
Over the past decade, countries in the African region experienced slow progress in mobilizing resources for health while facing continued challenges. In their revised estimates published in 2017, Stenberg et al., developed two costs scenarios, termed progress and ambitious, aimed at strengthening co
...
mprehensive health service delivery to achieve SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries (Stenberg et al., 2017). Out of the 47 countries in the WHO African region only eight, on average, met the recommended threshold of spending a minimum of US$ 249 per capita on health during the period from 2012 to 2020. In 2020, this achievement was observed in only five countries while the remaining countries spent less than US$ 249 per capita, with health expenditures ranging from US$ 16.4 to US$ 236.6, highlighting significant disparities across the region.
more
The relative priority received by issues
in global health agendas is subjected to impressionistic
claims in the absence of objective methods of assessment
of priority. To build an approach for conducting structured
assessments of comparative priority health issues receive,
we expand the public
...
arenas model (2021) and offer a
framework for future assessments of health issue priority
in global and national health agendas.
more
Development Finance at a Turning Point: Effects and Policy Recommendations
Berensmann K., Laudage Teles S., Sommer C., et al.
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
(2023)
CC
Development finance is at a turning point, as the macroeconomic environment has changed profoundly and the financing gap for low- and middle-income countries has widened. The events that led to this new situation are the multiple crises that the global economy is facing, such as the climate crisis,
...
the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. As a
result, interest rates have risen sharply over the past year and are not expected to decline anytime soon. High interest rates further restrict low- and middle-income countries’ access to international financial markets by making borrowing more expensive. At the same time, debt
levels in several countries are rising to levels that are almost impossible to repay. Poorer countries find themselves in a trap where financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) becomes a distant goal for them.
more
Africa’s health sector is facing an unprecedented financing crisis, driven by a sharp decline of 70% in Official Development Assistance (ODA) from 2021 to 2025 and deep-rooted structural vulnerabilities. This collapse is placing immense pressure on Africa’s already fragile health systems as ODA
...
is seen as the backbone of critical health programs: pandemic preparedness, maternal and child health services, disease control programs are all at
risk, threatening Sustainable Development Goal 3 and Universal Health Coverage. Compounding this is Africa’s spiraling debt, with countries expected to service USD 81 billion by 2025—surpassing anticipated external financing inflows—further eroding fiscal space for health investments. Level of domestic resources is low. TThe Abuja Declaration of 2001, a pivotal commitment made by African Union (AU) member states, aimed to reverse this trend by pledging to allocate at least 15% of national budgets to the health sector. However, more than two decades later, only three countries—Rwanda, Botswana, and Cabo Verde—have
consistently met or exceeded this target (WHO, 2023). In contrast, over 30 AU member states remain well below the 10% benchmark, with some allocating as little as 5–7% of their national budgets to health.
In addition, only 16 (29%) of African countries currently have updated versions of National Health Development Plan (NHDP) supported by a National Health Financing Plan (NHFP). These two documents play a critical role in driving internal resource mobilisation. At the same time, public health emergencies are surging, rising 41%—from 152 in 2022 to
213 in 2024—exposing severe under-resourcing of health infrastructure and workforce. Recurring outbreaks (Mpox, Ebola, cholera, measles, Marburg…) alongside effects of climate change and humanitarian crises in Eastern DRC, the Sahel, and Sudan, are overwhelming systems stretched by chronic underfunding. The situation is worsened by Africa’s heavy dependency with over 90% of vaccines, medicines, and diagnostics being externally sourced—leaving countries vulnerable to global supply chain shocks. Health worker shortages persist, with only 2.3 professionals
per 1,000 people (below the WHO’s recommended 4.45), and fewer than 30% of systems are digitized, undermining disease surveillance and early warning. Without decisive action, Africa CDC projects the continent could reverse two decades of health progress, face 2 to 4 million additional preventable deaths annually, and a heightened risk of a pandemic emerging from within. Furthermore, 39 million more
Africans could be pushed into poverty by 2030 due to intertwined health and economic shocks. This is not just a sectoral crisis—it is an existential threat to Africa’s political, social, and economic resilience, and global stability. In response, African leaders, under Africa CDC’s stewardship, are advancing a comprehensive three-pillar strategy centered on domestic resource mobilization, innovative financing, and blended finance.
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Achieving financial risk protection for the whole population requires significant financing for health. Health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are plagued with persistent underfunding, and recent reductions in official development assistance have been registered. To create fiscal
...
space for health, the pursuit of efficiency gains and exploring innovative health financing for health seem attractive. This paper sought to synthesize available evidence on the nature of innovative health financing instruments, mechanisms and policies implemented in Africa. We further reviewed the factors that hinder or facilitate implementation, the lessons learnt on the structure, the development process and the implementation.
more
Zambia is facing a severe economic crisis marked by high inflation, increasing poverty and a heavy debt burden that is straining both its fiscal stability and progress in health outcomes. By 2020, the country's external debt reached United States dollars (USD) 12.7 billion, representing 108% of the
...
country's gross domestic product (GDP). In 2020, Zambia sought assistance through the G20 Common Framework and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility (ECF), securing a USD 1.7 billion loan over 5 years. IMF loans, however, come with austerity measures that prioritise fiscal discipline but could potentially exacerbate social inequalities. These measures, which include increasing consumer taxes on goods and services (value added taxes - VATs), electricity tariffs and fuel prices, disproportionately impact vulnerable populations, raising concerns about their long-term effects on essential services, especially accessible and good quality healthcare services.
more
The Council was established in late 2020 by Dr Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus (Director-General, WHO) to provide new economic thinking – reassessing how health and wellbeing are valued, produced and distributed across the economy. An all-female group of 10 distinguished economists and area experts, t
...
he Council has focused on reimagining how to put Health for All at the heart of government decision-making and private sector collaboration at regional, national and international levels.
more
This comprehensive HPFM report thoroughly explores Kenya’s health financing landscape. It provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of affairs and sheds light on required strategic changes in health financing. The report points out the need to improve public financial management within th
...
e health sector, for more efficient financial systems. It focuses on better resourceraising and utilization mechanisms. The matrix highlights the need for consolidation of fragmented health financing arrangements, for a more efficient health system. It also emphasizes the need for enhancing strategic purchasing of health services, to improve the overall efficiency and quality of care. Additionally, the report stresses the critical
role of leveraging data and information systems for more evidence-based informed decision-making. These recommendations are crucial for advancing Kenya’s health financing system and moving closer to the UHC goal.
more
This paper examines the implications of the IMF’s April 2024 macro-fiscal forecast updates on government health expenditure (GHE) across 170 economies through 2029, covering nearly all years remaining to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings reveal wide disparities in gove
...
rnments' capacities to increase health spending, with differences not only observed across income groups but also within them. Primary concerns focus to two groups of low- and lower middleincome
countries: the first group is projected to experience a contraction in real per capita GHE from 2019 and 2029, threatening to reverse progress toward the health SDG targets, while the other group faces stagnation in real per capita GHE, greatly limiting advancement. The insights presented are crucial for health policymakers and their external partners to respond to evolving macro-fiscal circumstances and stabilize investment growth in health. While increasing the priority of health in spending is a key policy option, it will not be sufficient on its own. Effective responses also
require improving spending efficiency and addressing broader fiscal challenges. Without decisive action, many countries have little chance of achieving the health SDGs.
more
For this report, the Task Force commissioned
additional background papers on health taxes to
update the evidence, assess short-term revenue
potential, and understand the role of health taxes
in the current era of multiple crises. We find that
health taxes continue to be underutilized despite th
...
e
powerful impact they have in reducing preventable
death and disease — a particularly glaring act of
neglect in a world that has experienced a massive
pandemic.
more
In 2019, the Task Force on Fiscal Policy for Health concluded that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages were a highly effective but greatly underused policy tool to reduce consumption, save lives, and raise domestic resources. The Task Force estimated that if all countries increa
...
sed their excise taxes to raise prices by 50 percent, over 50 million premature deaths could be averted worldwide over the next 50 years while
raising over USD 20 trillion of additional revenue. Since the Task Force first convened, the world has faced a “polycrisis,” including a global pandemic, an economic recession, and the outbreak of wars in Europe and the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the world has also experienced prolonged health and fiscal crises. Health systems, weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic, lack sufficient financing to rebuild and respond to the surging noncommunicable diseases epidemic caused by uncontrolled risk factors such as tobacco, alcohol, and sugar consumption. Opportunities to raise domestic resources are limited and debt burdens have squeezed budgets. The period from 2019 to 2027 risks becoming a “lost decade” for health and social policies, with 110 countries facing little prospect of any
ability to raise government revenues beyond current levels. In this paper, we describe the current health and fiscal crises and review the contribution that health taxes could make in turning around this dire situation. We conclude that taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and
sugar-sweetened beverages are an ideal policy solution—good for the budget and good for health. These taxes are relatively quick to implement, and, unlike other taxes, do not put economic growth at risk—a vital benefit in the current era.
more
The world is facing a sustainable development crisis. The 2024 Financing for Sustainable Development Report: Financing for Development at a Crossroads finds that financing challenges are at the heart of the crisis and imperil the SDGs and climate action. The window to rescue the SDGs and prevent a c
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limate catastrophe is still open but closing rapidly. Financing gaps for sustainable development are large and growing – the estimates by international organizations and others are coalescing around $4 trillion additional investment needed annually for developing countries. This represents a more than 50% increase over the pre-pandemic estimates. Meanwhile, the finance divide has not been bridged, with developing countries paying around twice as much on average in interest on their total sovereign debt stock as developed countries. Many countries lack access to affordable finance or are in debt distress. Weak enabling environments are preventing progress. Average global growth has declined, while policy and regulatory frameworks still do not set appropriate incentives. Public budgets and spending is not fully aligned with SDGs. Private investors are not incentivised to invest enough in SDGs and climate action. The world is at a crossroads. This is the last chance to correct course if we want to achieve the SDGs by the 2030 deadline. Only an urgent, large-scale and sustainable investment push can help us achieve our global goals. Next year’s Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development in 2025 will be a once in 80-year opportunity to support coherent transformation of financing.
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