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Mental disorders are a leading cause of the global burden of disease, and the provision of mental health services in developing countries remains very limited and far from equitable. Using the Creditor Reporting System, we estimate the amounts and patterns of development assistance for global mental
...
health (DAMH) between 2007 and 2013. This allows us to examine how well international donors have responded to calls by global mental health advocates to scale up evidence-based services. Although DAMH did increase between 2007 and 2013, it remains low both in absolute terms and as a proportion of total development assistance for health (DAH). The average annual DAMH between 2007 and 2013 was US$133.57 million, and the proportion of DAH attributed to mental health is less than 1%. Approximately 48% of total DAMH was for humanitarian assistance, education, and civil services. More annual DAMH was channelled into the nonpublic sector than the public sector. Despite an expanding body of evidence suggesting that sustainable mental health care can be effectively integrated into existing health systems at relatively low cost, mental health has not received significant development assistance.
more
The International Conference on Population and Development in 1994 set targets for donor funding to support family planning programmes, and recent initiatives such as FP2020 have renewed focus on the need for adequate funding to rights-based family planning. Disbursements supporting family planning
...
disaggregated by donor, recipient country and year are not available for recent years. We estimate international donor funding for family planning in 2003–13, the period covering the introduction of reproductive health targets to the Millennium Development Goals and up to the beginning of FP2020, and compare funding to unmet need for family planning in recipient countries. We used the dataset of donor disbursements to support reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health developed by the Countdown to 2015 based on the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Creditor Reporting System.
more
A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at simi
...
lar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Regional Analysis. WPSAR Vol 7, No 2, 2016 | doi: 10.5365/wpsar.2015.6.4.010
DHS Further Analysis Reports No. 103
DHS Further Analysis Reports No 102
DHS Further Analysis Reports No. 101
